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Title: Fortune Favors the Bold : What We Must Do to Build a New and Lasting Global Prosperity by Lester C. Thurow ISBN: 0-06-052365-4 Publisher: HarperBusiness Pub. Date: 07 October, 2003 Format: Hardcover Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $26.95 |
Average Customer Rating: 2.58 (24 reviews)
Rating: 3
Summary: A somewhat timid picture
Comment: Much of this book has nothing to do with China; yet Thurow has a good deal to say about China in this book. Having followed Thurow over the years on his various comments on China, I have reluctantly concluded that just about everything he has had to say about China has turned out to be unfortunately wrong.
Thurow it was who declared that SARS would get out of control in China and that it would be necessary to quarantine the whole country from the rest of the world. This is just one example, but you get the idea. Thurow does not disappoint me in this book.
Here in this book Thurow thinks China's gross GDP will "probably" be larger than America's by 2100. Maybe he didn't read the book by Gregory Chow, the Princeton econometrist, who calculates that China's GDP in PPP will be equal to America's by 2020.
Now, since nobody knows what the currency exchange rates will be in the future, the PPP (Purchasing Power Parity in constant dollars) is the only reliable guide for comparison. It is likely that China's gross nominal GDP will still be smaller than America's by 2020. But that is unlikely to last long. China's economy will be larger than America's LONG BEFORE 2100.
Thurow emphasizes that the gross GDP doesn't matter in any case; only the per capita GDP does. While I tend to agree with his prediction that China's per capita GDP will still lag America's by 2100, I have trouble understanding his statement that the gross GDP is "irrelevant." I'm prepared to excuse this on the fact that he is writing merely as an economist. But no historian would make this mistake. After all, the USSR was a threat precisely because its economic base was large enough to sustain big military spending, not because its per capita income was anywhere near that of the of the United States.
Still, this book makes good reading because Thurow makes his arguments and reasoning pretty clear (and this is typical of him). I would urge other readers to bear in mind that even Nobel Laureates in Economics have violently disagreed with one another, and that FDR once wished he could find a one-armed economist......just so that he (or she) could not say "on the other hand."
Rating: 4
Summary: Logical and important.
Comment: A thorough and logical overview of economics and globalization, with predictions as well as prescriptions to manage potential problems. Although the predictions may or may not come true, the book is important because it allows readers the opportunity to understand in a clear, readable and factual manner, the issues we face as a "world economy".
If you want to read only one book which explains globalization, the rationale behind government run fiscal policies, the impact of trade deficits, and changing roles of governments and the world bank, this is a great one.
Rating: 4
Summary: Fortune Favors the Bold : What We Must Do to Build a New and
Comment: Thurow's premise is that globalization will proceed at a rapid pace whether or not firms and nations choose to participate, that this process has created great challenges, and that the economic future of the world is at stake. Thurow (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and author of numerous books, e.g., Building Wealth, CH, Mar'00; Head to Head, CH, Sep'92; The Future of Capitalism, 1996) contends that the world is experiencing three simultaneous revolutions: new technologies producing the third industrial revolution; emerging communications technologies that make possible a global economy; and a worldwide movement toward capitalism. He compellingly argues that, although no firm or country is forced to participate in globalization, firms that choose not to will be driven out of business and nations will opt out of the development process. Thurow also analyzes threats to the globalization process, including a collapse of the dollar, the lack of international guarantees of intellectual property rights to stimulate technology development, and the lack of life-saving drugs necessary for development of the poorest nations. To be successful in the global economy, nations, like firms, need a technology strategy. Although no revolutionary ideas are presented, the analysis is thorough and the ideas thought-provoking.
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Title: Building Wealth : The New Rules for Individuals, Companies, and Nations in a Knowledge-Based Economy by Lester C. Thurow ISBN: 0887309526 Publisher: HarperBusiness Pub. Date: 01 August, 2000 List Price(USD): $14.00 |
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Title: The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures by Richard Duncan ISBN: 0470821027 Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Pub. Date: 25 July, 2003 List Price(USD): $29.95 |
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Title: The Roaring Nineties: A New History of the World's Most Prosperous Decade by Joseph E. Stiglitz ISBN: 0393058522 Publisher: W.W. Norton & Company Pub. Date: October, 2003 List Price(USD): $25.95 |
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Title: The Future of Capitalism: How Today's Economic Forces Shape Tomorrow's World by Lester C. Thurow ISBN: 0140263284 Publisher: Penguin USA (Paper) Pub. Date: April, 1997 List Price(USD): $15.00 |
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Title: The Innovator's Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth by Clayton M. Christensen, Michael E. Raynor ISBN: 1578518520 Publisher: Harvard Business School Press Pub. Date: September, 2003 List Price(USD): $29.95 |
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