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Title: Beating the Dow (Revised and Updated) by Michael B. O'Higgins, John Downes ISBN: 0-06-662047-3 Publisher: HarperBusiness Pub. Date: 15 March, 2000 Format: Paperback Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $15.00 |
Average Customer Rating: 4.12 (16 reviews)
Rating: 5
Summary: Investing sensibly
Comment: Some people might laugh at this book specially the brokers who make living by sucking the commision out of an average investor. What had happened in the NASDAQ in 1999 before the correction was absolutely mind blowing and this book might have looked like a bad joke i.e. advocating to invest in companies like International Paper! but now that the dotcoms are down the drain, the valuations are somewhat back on earth, the margin-debt bitten people are done crying, maybe it is time that us i.e. average investors read this book.
This book as the name says is all about investing in Dow companies, the giants of the US and global economy. The companies which I truly believe that world could come to an end but GE would still be there. The book covers all the Dow components individually along with their historical financial performance, weaknesses, strenghts and their power to stay in business by being profitable over years and years. There are many different 'low risk' investment strategies covered in this book such as 'High Yielding 5'. These are the 5 Dow stock that you pick annually based on the criteria described, HOLD it for 1 year, redo the math (barely any)and pick your 5 stocks again. You also sell some at this point that didn;t meet your criteria and pick the new ones to fill their spot.
Sounds simple, yes! and that's the way it should be. Not only you can ride out the swings of the stock market in this way but also save a ton on commisions, taxes and most importantly be less stressed.
If you read the Motley Fool, you'll notice some of their strategies are derived from O'Higgin's methods.
A must read for all investors, specially younger people like myself who want to start building the nest yesterday!
Rating: 3
Summary: Sounds too good to be true
Comment: This is a classic book describing a simple method for achieving outstanding results in the stock market by investing in a selection of five stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial average. There is one little problem. The method hasn't worked very well recently. Taking some data from the table on page 204 of the O'higgins book we see the % gain or loss of the selected five stocks compared with the Dow Jones Industrial Average: (Year, Five stocks, Dow Jones Average);(1994 8.6 4.9),(1995 30.5 36.4), (1996 27.9 28.9), (1997 20.5 24.9), (1998 12.3 17.9). The method has faied to Beat the DOW every year since 1994. My own calculations shows that this under performance continues into 2001. The Motley Fool Group has done extensive research on this method and after their initial enthusiam they have recently terminated their recommendation. Serious students of the market should buy this book. Further study of this approach may lead to new methods for "Beating the Dow".
Rating: 3
Summary: Not a totally bad method of choosing stocks
Comment: "Beating The Dow" by Michael O'Higgins offers the following simple investment strategy. You simply buy the ten highest dividend paying stocks among the Dow Industrial Averages. The Philosophy is that as the value of the stocks increase, via stock price lagging or falling below the market, the dividend yield will tend to rise. (i.e. the assumption is that dividend yield is a proxy for value. One problem is that not all Dow stocks pay out the same level of earnings, so some stocks will tend to have higher dividends.)
While I tend to be skeptical of any investment strategy that is too simple, if you must use such a simple strategy, then you could do far worse selecting the highest dividend paying stocks from the Dow. Of course, the other option is just to index your money in a mutual fund that buys the entire stock market. Vanguard Funds is the leader in such index funds. But, I like dividends.
The difficulty with simple investment strategies is that they tend to be arrived at via data mining. The proponent of the investment method asks "What worked in the past?" and then tries to draw up a canned investment method. Almost always, the proposed method then starts to lag behind in the present and future stock market performance. (the recent performance of this strategy is discussed in another person's great book review. See that.) This is not due to market efficiency or that the method is becoming well known. It just means that the method wasn't entirely valid as a predictive method.
There is the old joke about the "X investment strategy." When a computer was asked to vigorously evaluate the stock market and look for predictors of future investment success, the computer spit back the answer, "Invest in stocks whose name begins with an 'X' and whose name ends with an 'X.' " Xerox was the top performing stock over the period.
"Beating The Dow" is one of those books, if read all by itself, might mislead a new investor into an over-simplified investment strategy. Yet, you might enjoy reading it. And, as stated, you could do worse than holding the ten highest dividend-paying Dow stocks.
"Beating The Dow" also mentions what Michael O'Higgins calls the "Penulatimate Profit Prospect (PPP)" which involves buying just one stock. The Stock with the second lowest price among the ten highest yielding stocks. I consider that Penidiotic. We conservative investors do love our stock dividends, and the focus on dividend yield gets "Beating The Dow" a solid honorable mention.
Peter Hupalo, Author of "Becoming An Investor: Building Wealth By Investing In Stocks, Bonds, And Mutual Funds."
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