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Title: Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications by John J. Murphy ISBN: 0-13-898008-X Publisher: Prentice Hall Press Pub. Date: 03 March, 1986 Format: Hardcover Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $65.00 |
Average Customer Rating: 4.86 (7 reviews)
Rating: 4
Summary: speaks with authority
Comment: Murphy has written a very good reference book, useful for brushing up on the finer points of charting, indicators and so forth. He also does a good job of going over the various technical theories with a straight face, neither endorsing favorites nor casting ridicule on the ones that are more logically suspect (cough cough, gannelliottfibonacci, cough cough).
The only thing I really took issue with was the habit of trying to predict the size and extent of price moves rather than sticking with more general observations regarding momentum and overall movement. Looking for something to happen before there is evidence of its arrival is a dangerous game for technical players, and to devotees of the approach, a friendly warning: be careful not to become a fundamentechnicalyst. Meaning, always keep in mind that effective technical analysis highlights probability rather than makes predictions. Since I just made up the word for this review, I'll now throw in the definition: A "fundamentechnicalyst" is one who makes predictions, just like the run of the mill fundamental analyst does- except the fundamentechnicalyst is making predictions based on technicals: chart patterns and various indicators, rather than supply and demand, weather, politics etc. In giving advance notice of how the movie is going to end, the approaches have similarity in their folly. The answer is to not say, "aha! because of pattern ABC, result XYZ must now occur...." Instead, say, "aha! because of pattern ABC, there is a reasonable probability that XYZ could possibly occur, but I recognize this is an odds game which means 1) it is normal, reasonable and expected for me to be wrong a portion of the time (the odds say so), and B) I gotta have a risk point, just in case this is one of those occurrences where the odds don't play out in my favor.
The difference in the thought process is subtle but critical. A prediction locks you in, creates a psychological commitment, brings your ego into the game, and screws up your mindset in general. Whereas if you recognize trading is essentially nothing but an odds game, then flexibility and peace of mind remain intact.
One of the hidden gems of this book was an excellent outline of why the contrarian method works. I don't want to give away Murphy's goods here, so I will just say that he points out a few very interesting reasons why it is natural for the majority to be wrong at turning points, and it is not simply because the masses lack trading ability or intelligence (though that is a factor, of course; the lumbering beast called Crowd is known for strong back and weak mind.)
To sum up, buy this book if you are new to technicals, if you want to brush up on your knowledge, or if you just want a handy reference. But be wary of the prediction trap. Keep your understanding of probability and odds intact.
Rating: 5
Summary: Text Book style - very effective analysis
Comment: Murphy has taken a very technical analysis of a "dry" subject and turned it into a readable, useful guide that should by read (and referred to often) by everyone who dares trade in the futures markets. It's a great first book on the subject, and a great book for experts alike.
Rating: 5
Summary: A Clear and Essential Guide
Comment: Murphy has collected, collated, condensed and presented just about every method of technically analysing the futures markets. His text, whether dissecting simple or abstruse concepts, is remarkably lucid. Comprehensive and comprehensible, this is a reference futures traders must own. All I would have asked for in addition would be more suggestions for implementing trading strategies, but that, in fact, might require another book. If Murphy were to write it, he might outsell all those fake futures promoters and their $195 "courses" combined.
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Title: Study Guide for Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets: A Self-Training Manual by John J. Murphy ISBN: 0138587477 Publisher: Prentice Hall Press Pub. Date: 02 July, 1987 List Price(USD): $32.00 |
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Title: Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications by John J. Murphy ISBN: 0735200661 Publisher: Prentice Hall Press Pub. Date: 04 January, 1999 List Price(USD): $80.00 |
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Title: The New Market Wizards : Conversations with America's Top Traders by Jack D. Schwager ISBN: 0887306675 Publisher: HarperBusiness Pub. Date: 26 January, 1994 List Price(USD): $17.00 |
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Title: Trading for a Living: Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management by Alexander Elder ISBN: 0471592242 Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Pub. Date: 08 March, 1993 List Price(USD): $75.00 |
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Title: Japanese Candlestick Charting - Second Edition by Steve Nison ISBN: 0735201811 Publisher: Prentice Hall Press Pub. Date: 30 October, 2001 List Price(USD): $90.00 |
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