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Title: In an Uncertain World: Tough Choices from Wall Street to Washington by Robert E. Rubin, Jacob Weisberg ISBN: 0-375-50585-7 Publisher: Random House Pub. Date: 18 November, 2003 Format: Hardcover Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $35.00 |
Average Customer Rating: 4.14 (29 reviews)
Rating: 4
Summary: Superior Washington Memoirs
Comment: This book is a thoughtful retelling of Robert Rubin's life on Wall Street and in government. The centerpiece is the account of Rubin's career in the Clinton Administration when, as director of the National Economic Council and then Secretary of the Treasury, he grappled with huge federal deficits and financial crises in Mexico and Asia. Early chapters describe his youth, Ivy League education, and career at Goldman Sachs; other chapters offer musings on subjects such as corporate governance, the financial excesses of the 1990s, global poverty, and the difficulty of educating the public on economics.
Throughout Rubin reflects on his analysis-driven, "probabilistic" approach to decision-making, which carefully weighs the upside as well as the downside of decisions taken under conditions of uncertainty. The tone of the book is low-key and balanced, and the economic discussions are clear and non-technical. Rubin's writing may not sparkle but he does have a gift for anecdotes and for wry, self-deprecating humor. He deflates faddish "new economy" gurus on Wall Street and tax-cutting theologians in the GOP without resorting to ad hominem remarks. In a strange way, his book is almost inspirational: it reminds readers that not too long ago the United States had a government that weighed evidence and considered options before taking fateful decisions.
I gave "In An Uncertain World" four stars (instead of five) because, in the last analysis, Rubin really is discreet to a fault: readers (and historians) would have benefited from a much fuller discussion of his relationship with Bill Clinton and from more details on policy differences and debates within the Clinton Administration. Maybe Rubin held his tongue because he hopes to re-enter public life in a future Democratic Administration. Or maybe he's just a classy guy.
Rating: 3
Summary: Nice Guy Finishes First (but Doesn't Write a Great Book)
Comment: Rubin begins in media res-on the evening after he was sworn in as Treasury Secretary-with a gripping story of how the Clinton administration handled the Mexican currency crisis. His memoir has three phases: his twenty six years spent at Goldman Sachs that culminated in a co-Chairman role, his six years serving under the Clinton administration, and his return to private life as a sort of consigliere at Citigroup. Most of the book, of course, recalls the Clinton years (i.e., 1992-99, where he went from head of the National Economic Council to Treasury Secretary) and they consist largely as a series of budgetary battles, public relations trials, and averted currency crises.
Rubin likes to "tell" almost as much as he likes to "show," so the themes aren't all that hard to find. First, clearly this is a treatise on, and justification of, the importance of probabilistic decision-making in an increasingly complex, interdependent world. And with nary a number, he repeatedly demonstrates a key weakness of traditional market models: they are not able to incorporate the potentially devastating impacts of certain events which are extremely unlikely to occur, but nevertheless are possible (e.g., what if the U.S. government defaulted on its debt?).
Second, politics is yucky business. Here is where I was most fascinated. Rubin manages to paint his political life as much more difficult and challenging than any of his private sector roles. This is virtually a unanimous verdict, as I read it, stretching from the expected (e.g., government strains to serve multiple, conflicting objectives while business ultimately gets to serve only the profit master) to the counter-intuitive (e.g., he apparently had a better work-life balance at Goldman). On important questions-in this book and in his speaking-he likes to divide the issue into a "substantive" piece and a "political" piece, tackling them separately.
Third, this is a modern day Aesop's fable, specifically the one where "nice guys finish first." By finishing first I mean to say that he amassed $100+ million along the way (not in the book, but elsewhere documented) and ended up at Citigroup without direct line responsibility! But seriously, you can see why even Rubin's critics respected him. He is possessed of humility ("anyone who has done well will acknowledge the enormous role played by chance"), candor ("I had no interest in becoming polished at television appearances, nor I suspect the capability to do that"), wisdom, and unbelievably good manners. For example, he was clearly wounded by ad hominem attacks during the 1995 budget fight (in particular, Newt Gingrich has a reoccurring nemesis role, calling Rubin "untrustworthy" on television), but when it comes to personal retorts, Rubin can only manage to praise Gingrich for his understanding of the dimensions of the Mexican crisis.
Finally, experience has led Rubin to believe that it is almost impossible to help ordinary voters understand the complexities of fiscal and foreign policy. He illustrates this expertly when he reviews his role in the debate around Bush's tax cuts in 2001 and 2003, where he dishearteningly cannot find a succinct way to warn of the long-term consequences of a structural deficit in the face of politically resonant messages that attach to tax cuts and spending increasing. He does find a terrific analogy in global warming: no one person experiences current suffering, but there is a small chance that inaction will hurt everybody gravely at some future time.
I wanted to give five stars, having really looked forward to this book. But as a literary work, the book does not reach the greatness of the man. It is ironic that Rubin, who excels at self-deprecating candor, reveals so little that is particularly new or insightful considering that he ran one of the most mysterious, successful organizations (Goldman) ever created; held a catbird seat in the Clinton administration; and is uniquely qualified to opine on the lessons of the raging bull market of the 1990s. The virtue of humility, alas, often makes his achievements appear all too easily-won. His favorite management technique appears to be taking interview notes on a legal pad (it is really endearing the first couple or few times but eventually...).
Perhaps because they are especially memorable, he spends too much time introspecting on his transitions; e.g., virtually all of Chapter Eleven is about him stepping down from Treasury and figuring out where to go next. Oh the agony, but you can skip this chapter and I'll summarize: it's a lot like your last job change, but Sandy Weil is trying to sell you instead of some slimy headhunter. Also, I don't think you should buy the book for the "Rubin Doctrine." These principles are sort of like the Ten Commandments (Number 9: never let your rhetoric commit you to something you cannot deliver...translation: don't make promises you can't keep). You will recognize them, as they are important clichés. It's not so much you need to read them, as politicians need to follow them.
I was disappointed by the lengthy and expected discussion of the rise and precipitous fall of the stock market. Forget the Monica Lewinski admission, the real scandal in this book is that Rubin adds virtually nothing to the stock market discussion beyond the familiar refrain of pent up imbalances that inevitably had to unwind (to his credit, he pretty much confesses as such). He cites the usual culprits, including profitless dotcoms and myopic investors. If you are looking information which is helpful to investing, you won't find much here. But Rubin totally redeems himself in Chapter Thirteen, to my mind easily the best chapter in the book, where he expertly explains both the politics and substance of fiscal policy. This Chapter is worth the price of the book
Rating: 3
Summary: Watch out for the Big Lie
Comment: Watch out for the Big Lie in this book -- namely, that the Bush administration tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 are responsible for the current budget deficit. The tax cut in 2001 was enacted under a perceived government surplus, while the tax cut in 2003 was driven by the faltering economy. Democrats faced with a budget surplus or a recession would have chosen to increase spending rather than cut taxes. Either way, with the internet bubble bursting and the 2001 WTC attack, the surplus would have disappeared and the deficit would have ballooned. Rubin's assertion that the tax cuts are responsible for the budget deficit is a Big Lie.
I am upset about this for two reasons. 1) Philosophically I believe in a flat tax rate -- I believe everyone (and every corporation) should pay an equal percentage share in taxes over a certain minimum income level. 2) I'm worried this misrepresentation will result in poor decisions on a macro level -- like a call for higher taxes irregardless of the economic impact. If we tighten fiscal and monetary policy prematurely during 2004-2005 (as Greenspan and Bush are now signaling), we risk a deflationary spiral. That danger is emphatically not over, despite rising oil prices, a resurgent stock market and a continuing real estate boom. Maybe I'm wrong, and we can all address the current budget deficit without regard for the possibility of over-tightening. However, I'd like to feel that irrational economic decisions driven by a Big Lie are not part of our problem.
I'm saying we all want to get the United States' fiscal house in order. In the process, lets not confuse party politics (progressive taxes vs. a flat tax) with sound economics.
90% of this autobiography is a well-written, measured story of an awesomely talented individual chalking up major accomplishments as a highly professional manager in a series of extraordinarily difficult and high-impact positions. Rubin is most likely a truly superb manager. I've never worked with or (more likely) for the guy.
Having read the book, however, I would be very upset seeing Robert Rubin follow Alan Greenspan as Governor of the Federal Reserve. He has clearly misrepresented the economic facts in this book to suit his political positions. He'd be great as a Secretary of State for a Democratic administration, or a Secretary of Treasury redux.
I give the book three stars, because Rubin is a legitimate American super star. Pity he's a Democrat.
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