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Title: Acceptable Risk : A Critical Guide by Baruch Fischhoff, Sarah Lichtenstein, Paul Slovic, Steven L. Derby, Ralph Keeney ISBN: 0-521-27892-9 Publisher: Cambridge University Press Pub. Date: 27 January, 1984 Format: Paperback Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $25.00 |
Average Customer Rating: 4.5 (2 reviews)
Rating: 5
Summary: Brilliant and insightful
Comment: This is a brilliant and stimulating book. Although it nominally concerns itself with the area of hazard management, policy and technology choices associated with loss of life or limb, it provides a great deal of insight into all forms of risk management and formal decision making.
A very well-researched book, it is obvious that the authors have not only thought long and hard about the subject matter, but have also applied a very disciplined analysis to it. Although the authors are scholars, the book is not necessarily aimed at an academic audience. While challenging, it is still approachable by the lay person.
The text does not recommend any particular methodology for decision making, but instead provides a context within which different decision making methods can be understood and evaluated. It begins by analyzing the problems confronting all acceptable risk decisions, discussing '5 generic complexities' that negatively affect all forms of formal risk analysis. Then the authors provide '7 criteria for evaluating the acceptability of approaches to acceptable risk.' The remainder of the book is spent analyzing approaches to risk management on a spectrum of empirical to formal methods, using their 7 criteria.
I found it an extremely enlightening text with applicability beyond that stated by the authors. It sheds light on many of the 'formal' methods that have been developed for areas of concern to me, specifically in the Information Security field, which often tends towards voodoo analysis based on unstated assumptions and incomplete methodologies. Although it was written over 20 years ago, it still provides a great deal of utility and insight today. One of the text's final recommendations is that the field of Risk Management be made into a formal career choice, with all of the 'formal trappings'. It is a tribute to the foresight of the authors that this is exactly what is happening today, with the emergence of the Chief Risk Officer role, trade journals devoted to the generic concept of risk, and ever greater academic attention and career training in risk management.
Rating: 4
Summary: This is an excellent monograph on the thinking behind risk
Comment: I read this monograph years ago and lent it to someone who obviously found it equally fascinating because I've never had it back. If risk is a theme in your work, the ideas in Fischoff and Lichtenstein's book are worth reading. They offer explanations and analysis which seem to match how real people and organisations take risk decisions.END
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Title: Risk Communication : A Mental Models Approach by M. Granger Morgan, Baruch Fischhoff, Ann Bostrom, Cynthia J. Atman ISBN: 0521002567 Publisher: Cambridge University Press Pub. Date: 30 July, 2001 List Price(USD): $30.00 |
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Title: Judgment under Uncertainty : Heuristics and Biases by Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky, Amos Tversky ISBN: 0521284147 Publisher: Cambridge University Press Pub. Date: 30 April, 1982 List Price(USD): $45.00 |
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