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Title: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things by Ray C. Fair ISBN: 0-8047-4509-9 Publisher: Stanford Univ Pr Pub. Date: August, 2002 Format: Hardcover Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $25.95 |
Average Customer Rating: 5 (2 reviews)
Rating: 5
Summary: It should be a bestseller in any Presidential election year.
Comment: This is a short book (155 pages, 10 chapters). And, the dominant theme is how to predict Presidential election (occupies 4 chapters). Ray Fair writes more like a bestseller writer than an economics professor at an Ivy League that he is (Yale). His writing style is alive and journalistic. As a result, his book is a lot more fun to read than your usual dry economics textbook. You don't need to be a quantitative type to enjoy this book.
I came across this book by doing an Internet search on Presidential election forecasting models. By far the best was Ray Fair's model, as it accurately predicted the outcome in 18 of the past 21 elections. Really intrigued, I read his technical notes extracted from his working papers published within econometric journals. But, I could not fully understand some of the key details underlying the foundation of his model. Fair indicated he had written a book explaining his model for the layperson. I jumped at the occasion, and bought the book.
The book met and exceeded my expectation. Within the second chapter, the author gives an excellent lesson in linear regression and multivariate regression analysis. The entire chapter is written in plain and understandable English without recourse to a single Greek letter. Armed with this renewed and deepened understanding of linear regression, I could easily follow the most relevant details underlying the foundation of his Presidential election forecasting model.
This model is really pretty amazing as it forecasted several quarters before the polls did, and before we even knew who the Republican nominee would be that the Gore - Bush election was going to be just about too close to call. The model uses several macroeconomic factors (inflation, overall GDP per capita growth, number of quarters with very rapid GDP per capita growth) and several political factors (who is the party in power, how long has it been in power, what party is in power) to come up with the incumbent party's voting share of the two party total votes.
Right now in March of 2004, this model indicates that Bush will get about 55% of the two party total votes. This is pretty interesting, given that currently the polls often have Kerry ahead by several percentage points. Additionally, the model suggests that its estimates of Bush's vote share is unlikely to change radically between now and November. In other words, it does not foresee a Kerry win under most likely economic scenarios between now and then. I know this may not be what readers would like to hear, but that is a social science observation, it is not a political opinion. Mr. Fair's objective is to develop the most accurate model he can. Granted, the model can always be wrong one more time. But, given its track record I would not bet big money against it.
The book is not just about Presidential elections; it also addresses the following issues:
1)Who is more likely to engage in extramarital affairs;
2)How to forecast the quality of a new wine;
3)How to forecast grades in a college level economics class;
4)How to predict by how much people slow down with age
5)How to forecast short term interest rates; and
6)How to forecast inflation.
Issues 5 and 6 are classic macroeconomic concerns. The author addresses them in a predictable way (using other relevant macroeconomic variables to predict the dependent variable).
But within these six issues, two stood out for me. These include wine quality and how much we slow down with age. In both cases, the model's output was amazingly interesting.
Regarding, wine quality, it suggests you can forecast the quality of a young wine years down the road just by looking at several climate variables around the time the wine was produced. The back testing of the model was really successful. In other words, just by observing data and using his multivariate regression model, you can come up with an assessment of a wine quality that would probably be more accurate than the subjective opinion of most wine experts.
Considering aging, the author looked at age based world records in middle to long distance running disciplines. From the data, he derived what is the pace of slowing down from one year to the next after age 35. From looking at his data, you will be amazed of how little the body slows down between 35 and 59 years old. Sixty appears to be a transition, when the slowing down becomes a bit more rapid. But, still people who keep healthy and fit can remain pretty competitive well in their early seventies. This section gives you a totally different perspective about aging; and, frankly a much more optimistic perspective at that.
Rating: 5
Summary: INTERESTING AND INTRIGUING
Comment: Being a "stat freak" from a long-time interest in various sports, especially baseball and track & field, I very much enjoyed this book. Of special interest to me was the chapter on determining slowdown rates in the marathon as well as in shorter running distances. Professor Fair takes marathon age records beginning at age 35 -- the age when we are supposedly "over the hill" -- on up to age 84 and comes up with some interesting statistics. The slowdown rates at shorter distances vary a little, indicating speed deteriorates a little faster than endurance, at least in the middle years.
The findings relative to running times may very well apply to other activities. Author Fair concludes that societies may have been too pessimistic about losses from aging for individuals who stay healthy and fit.
Other chapters deal with presidential elections, extramarital affairs, wine quality, college grades, interest rates, and inflation. What do they have in common? As Fair explains, they can all be explained and analyzed using the tools of social science and statistics.
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Title: A Concise Introduction to Econometrics: An Intuitive Guide by Philip Hans Franses ISBN: 0521520908 Publisher: Cambridge University Press Pub. Date: February, 2003 List Price(USD): $18.00 |
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Title: The Roaring Nineties: A New History of the World's Most Prosperous Decade by Joseph E. Stiglitz ISBN: 0393058522 Publisher: W.W. Norton & Company Pub. Date: October, 2003 List Price(USD): $25.95 |
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Title: The Two Americas : Our Current Political Deadlock and How to Break It by Stanley B. Greenberg ISBN: 0312318383 Publisher: Thomas Dunne Books Pub. Date: 08 January, 2004 List Price(USD): $25.95 |
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Title: Advances in Behavioral Finance by Richard H. Thaler ISBN: 0871548445 Publisher: Russell Sage Foundation Pub. Date: June, 1993 List Price(USD): $21.95 |
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Title: A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market by John Allen Paulos ISBN: 0465054803 Publisher: Basic Books Pub. Date: 13 May, 2003 List Price(USD): $25.00 |
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