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Title: The Implications of the Possible End of the Arab-Israeli Conflict for Gulf Security by Zalmaym. Khalilzad, David A. Shlapak, Zalmay M. Khalilzad, Daniel L. Byman ISBN: 0-8330-2469-8 Publisher: RAND Pub. Date: March, 1997 Format: Paperback Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $15.00

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Summary: A case study on Arab-Israeli Peace and its implications
Comment: The security of the Persian Gulf remains a vital national security concern for the United States. Vital, as over 30% of oil imports are sent from the region. A disturbance in the supply caused by internal or external conflict may diminish the economic growth of not only the U.S but will have ramification worldwide. Post Desert Storm the political landscape of the region has changed dramatically. With the Soviet Union disintegrated, the U.S remains the sole power to dictate its term. This new reality has forced nations in the region to accommodate the change in this reality. A significant shift in policies occurred by both Syria and Jordan, which were once supported by Soviet Union and later moved from confrontation to compromise in the relations with U.S. This change occurred after it became evident that Russia could no longer support them financially and militarily. Call it direct or indirect but peace in (how shallow a form) came about after Soviet Union was dismantled. Till the mid 1990's significant dialogue and energy was placed by both Israel and the Arab nations.

In this study the authors have identified the region of conflict in the Gulf, and the access available to the forces from friendly countries. The authors do comparative analysis on military forces, bases and equipment between all the countries. There were two facts mentioned in this study, which I do not concur with, which are:

1.Security and Intelligence sharing between Arabs and Israel.
2.Iranian Opportunism.

I disagree with first on the mere premise that there exists much mistrust between the two nations. The present example is relations between Israel and Egypt. Having made peace in the late 70's the relation has not progressed; it is at best a mere recognition and a non-war pact. True peace cannot be achieved in my perception till the Palestinian cause for a homeland is not addressed and their rights of independence are not respected. In the second case Iranian Opportunism in the region remains a very unlikely scenario. The Iranians like all the people in the region have witnessed the devastation brought onto Iraq after if began its incursion into Kuwait. Besides at present Iran remain both militarily and financially very weak. In the late 1990 the Iran government decided against an attack on Afghanistan (under Taliban) after it was evident that the latter had murdered its diplomat.