Order from a Major Online Bookstore
Ultimate Book Price Comparison Engine
Save Your Time And Money
| AnyBook4Less.com | Order from a Major Online Bookstore |
|
| Home | Store List | FAQ | Contact Us | | ||
| Ultimate Book Price Comparison Engine Save Your Time And Money |
||
 |
Title: Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence by Peter Schwartz ISBN: 1-59240-069-8 Publisher: Gotham Pub. Date: 24 May, 2004 Format: Paperback Volumes: 1 List Price(USD): $15.00 |
Average Customer Rating: 3.6 (10 reviews)
Rating: 3
Summary: Plus others!
Comment: I would recommend this book, but only if it is read along with others in the field; such as "Leading Change" by Kotter, and "Strategic Organizational Change" by Beitler.
Rating: 4
Summary: Alternatives to denial & defensiveness before massive change
Comment: Since the future isn't what it used to be and only seems to get stranger by the day, Peter Schwartz's latest book should be a welcome guide to the "inevitable surprises" ahead. Schwartz isn't just any futurist; he's a kingpin at the Global Business Network and frequently consults to governments and large corporations. Schwartz argues that many of the big surprises ahead can be foreseen if we use scenario thinking to closely examining existing signs. With this point as well as in some details - such as the impact of shrinking populations - Schwartz is in accord with Peter Drucker. This book lays out the dramatic transformation and volatility we face over the next quarter century. The book's scope is wide enough that everyone is likely to find themselves startled and stimulated.
In case you read Schwartz's previous work and wonder whether he still believes in "The Long Boom", the answer is an undeniable and unashamed *yes!* Productivity and accelerating technological advances will return the economy to a long-term path of strong growth. This doesn't mean that Schwartz paints a pastel portrait of the future. We can expect a cleaner environment and opportunities in abundance, but must also anticipate massive migrations of people, declining populations in large parts of the Western world, a confusing and unruly international situation, global climate crises, plagues, and possibly an asteroid strike. Study this book, challenge Schwartz's thinking, and prepare yourself and your business for a wild ride ahead.
Schwartz believes that his forecasts and scenarios will stand up to the test of future history better than those of most prognosticators. The reason is that, in the grand tradition of "predetermined elements" in scenario planning, he is drawing out the implications of events that have already happened. Many of the big surprises are, in fact, inevitable. So why are we continually caught off guard? Schwartz pins the blame on our tendency as decision makers to react to the drivers of change either with denial or defensiveness. Neither kind of response is effective and both are "fundamentally irresponsible" as Schwartz puts it. In this book, he aims to help us understand the kinds of inevitable surprises lying ahead, and to suggest steps that organizations can take to thrive.
In the author's view, humanity faces greater challenges now than ever before. At the same time we have greater capabilities than ever before. Our greatest challenge is "to master our own accelerating power, without being swept away by it." Along with a few other well-grounded futurists, Schwartz has laid down a challenge along with weapons for tackling the future. Inevitably, most readers will read this book and find it both informative and engaging but few will incorporate the resulting ideas for action into their plans. When it comes to these large-scale shifts, *doing* has always been disadvantaged compared to *denial* and *defensiveness*. Being proven wrong about this would be a surprise but, alas, not an inevitable surprise.
Rating: 5
Summary: Mindstretcher
Comment: Heartily enjoyed this book. Got me thinking long-term about some of the possibilities for the future that you don't find in the newspapers e.g. the impact of AIDS in places like Russia and India and how that could affect future growth.
The way the author can say pretty well what will happen based on current evidence is an amazing tool that should only grow in importance, yet it does not take away the free will to change.
Makes you appreciate the world will be even more amazing in the future.
 |
Title: The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World by Peter Schwartz ISBN: 0385267320 Publisher: Currency Pub. Date: 01 April, 1996 List Price(USD): $17.95 |
 |
Title: The Long Boom: A Vision for the Coming Age of Prosperity by Peter Schwartz, Peter Leyden, Joel Hyatt ISBN: 0738203645 Publisher: Perseus Books Group Pub. Date: 01 October, 2000 List Price(USD): $18.00 |
 |
Title: Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation by Kees van der Heijden ISBN: 0471966398 Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Pub. Date: 24 October, 1996 List Price(USD): $39.95 |
 |
Title: The Innovator's Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth by Clayton M. Christensen, Michael E. Raynor ISBN: 1578518520 Publisher: Harvard Business School Press Pub. Date: September, 2003 List Price(USD): $29.95 |
 |
Title: The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organisational Learning with Scenarios by Kees van der Heijden, Ron Bradfield, George Burt, George Cairns, George Wright ISBN: 0470844914 Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Pub. Date: 12 September, 2002 List Price(USD): $29.95 |
Thank you for visiting www.AnyBook4Less.com and enjoy your savings!
Copyright� 2001-2021 Send your comments
